财新传媒
位置:博客 > 李昕 > 达沃斯手记丨第三天:索罗斯说什么,和政要成人礼

达沃斯手记丨第三天:索罗斯说什么,和政要成人礼

达沃斯有几个常客,索罗斯和盖茨都是。盖茨每年会组织一个闭门小论坛,内容都是教育或医疗。索罗斯举行一个晚宴,席间分享他对全球大势的看法。他视野很广,又是哲学出身,讲话内容凝练,几乎每句都值得回味想想。

 

索罗斯88岁。去年将个人财富绝大部分(180亿美元)转入旗下的开放社会基金会。几年听下来,他的达沃斯晚宴演讲内容从地缘政治、金融经济,越来越偏向对人类行为、价值和命运的反思。

 

晚宴冷盘过后,他和夫人一起到现场。屋中间搭起讲台,他在一个高椅上坐定,开始说。第一句就是“我们所处的历史时刻,我觉得是相当痛苦的 (I find the current moment in history rather painful)。

 

以下是他演讲内容的节选。

 

关于特朗普

 

  • He would like to establish a mafia state but he can’t, because the Constitution, other institutions, and a vibrant civil society won’t allow it.

     

  • I consider the Trump administration a danger to the world. But I regard it as a purely temporary phenomenon that will disappear in 2020, or even sooner.

     

  • I give him credit for motivating his core supporters brilliantly, but for every core supporter, he has created a greater number of core opponents who are equally strongly motivated. That is why I expect a Democratic landslide in 2018.

 

关于开放社会

 

  • Mankind’s ability to harness the forces of nature, both for constructive and destructive purposes, continues to grow while our ability to govern ourselves properly fluctuates, and it is now at a low ebb.

 

关于朝核

 

  • The threat of nuclear war is so horrendous that we are inclined to ignore it. But it is real. 

     

  • Indeed, the United States is set on a course toward nuclear war by refusing to accept that North Korea has become a nuclear power. This creates a strong incentive for North Korea to develop its nuclear capacity with all possible speed, which in turn may induce the United States to use its nuclear superiority preemptively; in effect to start a nuclear war in order to prevent nuclear war – an obviously self-contradictory strategy. 

 

他建议的解决方案是——承认朝鲜是有核国家的现实,多方协调,用胡萝卜和大棒,促成freeze-for-freeze agreement。

 

关于科技公司横向垄断和社交媒体

 

  • The exceptional profitability of these companies is largely a function of their avoiding responsibility for-- and avoiding paying for-- the content on their platforms.

     

  • The fact that they are near monopoly distributors makes them public utilities and should subject them to more stringent regulations, aimed at preserving competition, innovation, and fair and open universal access.

     

  • Something very harmful and maybe irreversible is happening to human attention in our digital age. Not just distraction or addiction; social media companies are inducing people to give up their autonomy. The power to shape people’s attention is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few companies. It takes a real effort to assert and defend what John Stuart Mill called “the freedom of mind.” There is a possibility that once lost, people who grow up in the digital age will have difficulty in regaining it. This may have far-reaching political consequences. People without the freedom of mind can be easily manipulated. This danger does not loom only in the future; it already played an important role in the 2016 US presidential elections.

 

他觉得,监管和征税打破科技巨头的垄断只是时间问题,而其克星就是欧盟委员会竞争专员Vestager。

 

 

达沃斯是全球政经风向标,也是一些新晋政要的成人礼。

 

不少政要都曾是世界经济论坛青年领袖组织(YGL)的一员。比如俄罗斯的梅德韦杰夫,法国总统马克龙,美国的伊万卡特朗普。

 

巴基斯坦的总理阿巴斯(Shahid Khaqan Abbasi),是本次我主持辩论的嘉宾之一,也是YGL成员。

 

他的走马上任颇有戏剧性。

 

去年7月,巴基斯坦最高法院裁定谢里夫因被指涉嫌贪污腐败,丧失总理资格。谢里夫辞职,指定其胞弟接替。程序需要时间——弟弟必须先辞去省长职位,入选议会,才有资格当总理,而走完程序的时间是45天。一直在政府担任公职阿巴斯临危受命,去当这个45天的总理。

 

此后,谢里夫决定让弟弟改为2018年6月接班。所以阿巴斯的45天变为一年。

 

以总理之位,他宣布的政策集中在安全、税改、农业和教育上,颇重视民生。任期有限,很可能没有足够时间展现效果。单从表达和沟通能力上,他相当有优势:熟悉商业,熟悉国际舞台,思维敏捷,洞察和表达能力都强,有幽默感。他是不像元首的元首,很好的沟通对象,非常难得的国家代言人。

 

谈及巴基斯坦的问题,他说:“巴基斯坦的痛楚,并非源自自身。”

 

面对海外投资者,他说:“有两个巴基斯坦,一个是CNN里面的,一个是现实的。你们应该去看那个现实的。”

 

一带一路怎样赢得当地民心?“简单,制造就业。”

 

在一个政权更迭频繁,治理脆弱的转型国家,他前路未卜。但他本身传递的信息,给外界希望。

 

当地时间2018年1月24日,瑞士达沃斯,巴基斯坦总理阿巴西(Shahid Khaqan Abbasi)出席达沃斯经济论坛“财新辩论:‘一带一路’影响”论坛。阿巴西称,在“一带一路”项目带动下,巴基斯坦出口实现15%的增长率。确保项目成功的关键是,采用统一、公平的标准,实现财务可持续性、环境友好性及包容性。图/视觉中国

 

本文撰写于2018年1月26日,瑞士达沃斯



推荐 75